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Thursday
May052011

Did the Federal Reserve cause the Arab Spring?

No, it is not a conspiracy theory. The Fed did not collaborate with the Pentagon and CIA to topple Arab dictators. But this article (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8492078/How-the-Fed-triggered-the-Arab-Spring-uprisings-in-two-easy-graphs.html) in the Daily Telegraph (not usually reliable for nuanced analyses) makes the case that the Fed's policy of Quantitative Easing – a policy whereby the fed buys back Treasury Bills in order to increase money supply and excess reserves among retail banks – drove international commodity prices to rise substantially. These prSave & Closeice hikes, in turn, severely affected bread prices in the Arab World to which many commentators attribute the particular timing of the outbreak of the revolts. The author of the article, the economist Andrew Lilico, also presents data that demonstrates how revolutions have historically converged with high bread prices. 

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